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最新新聞Pick to: year of the Dragon at the beginning, due to the expected real estate macro-control policies to relax, all over the country residential land situation more deserted, but commercial plots sold frequently take high. The Dragon at the beginning, due to the expected real estate macro-control policies to relax, all over the country residential land situation more deserted, but commercial plots sold frequently take high.
Analytic personage thinks, this year is expected to commercial plots sold will be the continuation of last year's hot market, the local government will increase the commercial plots sold concessions and support. Increase strength of commercial plots of land to a certain extent hedge land decline trend, commercial real estate development and operation of local investment, pull move economic role.
The country or play the " business card"
Hefei Land Resources Bureau website recently disclosed information display, Hefei City Hall in February 1st announced the implementation of" on the promotion of stock commercial land upgrading to improve land use efficiency of opinions"," about invigorated the stock of land for construction to improve land use efficiency" and" the opinions on promoting the intensive use of industrial land .". Analysis of the industry, in the three land deal, the most eye-catching is for a total investment of 500000000 yuan in the large commercial projects, on the price of land given 5 to 30 percent off preferential. This will greatly motivate the real estate development business to local commercial plots with enthusiasm.
A number of experts and the industry said, due to the central policy of estate adjusting control to relax, this year the national land leasing situation can hardly be optimistic about. In the property market downturn, adjustment of land policy and land income reduction, local fiscal pressures have a relationship. Accelerate the commercial land transfer will undoubtedly become a local government of the important ways to ease the financial pressure. The future of the local government may according to market demand and their own situation, increase the commercial land concessions and support.
Ministry of land and Resources Survey Planning Institute deputy chief engineer Zou Xiaoyun said, each local government making the annual land supply plan, according to market demand make corresponding adjustment is quite reasonable. Beijing Centaline Market Research Department Director Zhang Dawei said, increase strength commercial plots of land, not only to a certain extent hedge land decline trend, but not with the central government's policy of estate adjusting control conflict; long term, commercial land, commercial real estate development and operation of local investment, pull move economic role. There are some two or three line City Brewing increase the commercial land concessions and support.
Commercial real estate warms up continuously
Shanghai Land Bureau website, February 15th auction a Shanghai Yangpu District commercial office space, the end to a high of 138% of the premium rate of turnover, the price floor price of 131000000 yuan, 16582 yuan per square metre. Analysis of the industry, 138% of the premium rate is not high, but
First Pacific Davies Beijing research and consultancy department director Wang Qiong believes the first-tier cities, especially in the housing market slump, the market is expected to continue to decline. The development of commercial real estate continued good momentum in 2011. On one hand, in the property market regulatory policy constraints, commercial real estate was once considered to be the real estate market "port"; on the other hand, after the domestic commercial real estate remains in the doldrums, and the city changes process of steady progress, the current commercial real estate is gradually entered a" golden development period". At present, the housing enterprises and market are optimistic about the domestic commercial real estate development trend.
Chain of the real estate market research department statistics, in 2011
A senior commercial real estate industry source said, the current market of monetary tightening, the housing funds greater pressure. While commercial real estate compared to the residential or industrial estate, the rate of return and risk control of the relative is a better choice.
Not to mention optimistic about the prospects of residential land
Analysis of the industry, if the commercial land grades, but by the residential land transfer market offers drag, is expected around the annual land situation still not hopeful. Land Liupai, price transactions situation or still appears again and again throughout the housing land leasing market.
Zhang Dawei analysis, the housing enterprises financial pressure is still large, the rate of" cash is king" strategy, the national land market cold and cheerless. And regulatory policy still tighten, led to the housing auction residential land enough passion. In 2012 the land transfer market, especially in the first half of the year the situation will be more grim.
摘 要：2012年四季度，部分債券將進(jìn)入回售期，然而，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)資金狀況的持續(xù)惡化令人擔(dān)憂，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流以及償付能力到底如何演變？ 2012年四季度，部分債券將進(jìn)入回售期，然而，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)資金狀況的持續(xù)惡化令人擔(dān)憂，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流以及償付能力到底如何演變？
目前來(lái)看，房地產(chǎn)政策還未見(jiàn)明顯放松，而銷售量仍然在較低平臺(tái)，房企依靠自身獲得回款的能力較差，同時(shí)政策控制也扼制了房企的融資渠道。
在信貸緊縮的大環(huán)境下，房企從銀行獲得資金越來(lái)越困難。如果不出現(xiàn)銷售的反轉(zhuǎn)和流動(dòng)性的緩解，房地產(chǎn)公司的現(xiàn)金流狀況將會(huì)持續(xù)惡化。房地產(chǎn)債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)水平會(huì)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)維持高位，甚至不排除出現(xiàn)行業(yè)內(nèi)大規(guī)模的違約事件，連累房地產(chǎn)債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)率水平的抬升，甚至影響可能擴(kuò)大到中低等級(jí)信用債券。
以09銀基債為例。目前交易凈價(jià)維持在99元左右，低于100元的面值。如果這一情況在2012年11月16日前無(wú)法根本性轉(zhuǎn)變的話，屆時(shí)債券持有人選擇行使提前回售權(quán)的概率相當(dāng)高。而按2011年三季報(bào)披露的資金狀況，銀基發(fā)展（000511）的財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力，不足以完全覆蓋高達(dá)5.5億元的債券本金及其衍生出的4400萬(wàn)元一年債券利息。面臨償債壓力的企業(yè)債并非09銀基債一家。
目前交易所市場(chǎng)共有31只房地產(chǎn)公司債在交易中，發(fā)債主體28個(gè)，從房地產(chǎn)債的到期日期分布來(lái)看，若不考慮回售條款，集中到期時(shí)間是在2013年三季度和2014年三四季度；若考慮回售條款，則2012年四季度將迎來(lái)第一個(gè)到期高峰。
中小企業(yè)償債危機(jī)
二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上，去年12月中旬，部分房地產(chǎn)債已出現(xiàn)較大幅度的下跌。跌幅較大的主要是09萬(wàn)業(yè)債和09泛海債，一個(gè)月內(nèi)收益率上升均超過(guò)1.5%，09泛海債的收益率已突破10%的水平。
市場(chǎng)對(duì)于房市不景氣的預(yù)期仍在發(fā)酵之中，尤其是對(duì)于信用等級(jí)較低的債券，給予了較高溢價(jià)水平，對(duì)房企的悲觀預(yù)期甚至影響了債市的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)水平。
自去年9月初債券市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始恢復(fù)以來(lái)，我們僅僅看到高等級(jí)信用債利差的回復(fù)，而中低等級(jí)的信用利差則出現(xiàn)和高等級(jí)相悖的走勢(shì)，一直擴(kuò)大，近期雖然略有收窄，但是仍然維持在高位。
市場(chǎng)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)發(fā)行債券的擔(dān)憂更甚，如果沒(méi)有強(qiáng)有力的第三方擔(dān)保（銀行擔(dān)�；蛘呒瘓F(tuán)擔(dān)保），地產(chǎn)債的收益率（取到期收益率和回售收益率的最大值）絕大多數(shù)都高于同等級(jí)同期限債券的估值水平。
而房地產(chǎn)各債因資質(zhì)不同，收益率水平也開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)分化。對(duì)于收益率高的龍頭企業(yè)，自然不用擔(dān)心償債問(wèn)題，而對(duì)于資質(zhì)不高的小企業(yè)，則可能面臨破產(chǎn)危險(xiǎn)。
從長(zhǎng)期償債能力上看，截至2011年三季度，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)凈負(fù)債情況表現(xiàn)出兩種趨勢(shì)，大型房企的凈負(fù)債率依然保持在較低水平，甚至在2008年以后主動(dòng)采取了收縮投資等策略，主動(dòng)降低了企業(yè)杠桿水平，例如金地、萬(wàn)科、萬(wàn)通、保利、天房，負(fù)債率水平基本控制在45%以下。
但同時(shí)，中小房企凈負(fù)債率都處在較高水平，30%以上房地產(chǎn)發(fā)債企業(yè)的凈負(fù)債率高于60%，而09津?yàn)I債、09蘇高新、09中企債的凈負(fù)債率甚至高于65%。
從短期償債能力看，部分公司的短期償債能力已弱于2008年水平。25家發(fā)行人中，賬面貨幣資金不足覆蓋短期債務(wù)的發(fā)行人達(dá)12家。而在這12家發(fā)行人中，09寧高科、09中企、09滬張江、09億城和09金豐債，不但貨幣資金對(duì)短期貸款的覆蓋率不強(qiáng)，而且較2008年的水平還有惡化。
由于后續(xù)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)銷售的崛起短期內(nèi)并不樂(lè)觀，而流動(dòng)性的放松傳導(dǎo)到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)還有待時(shí)日，我們認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)償債能力最差的時(shí)刻還沒(méi)有過(guò)去。
最壞時(shí)刻或在二季度
在房地產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金流入方面，主要是看銷售回款額的多少，而決定回款額的因素主要是房地產(chǎn)政策的放松或者流動(dòng)性的寬松。按照房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的銷售情況預(yù)測(cè)，房地產(chǎn)投資將繼續(xù)在2012年下滑，假設(shè)新開(kāi)工面積的增速為-20%，房地產(chǎn)銷售增速為0，那么房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)庫(kù)存將在2012年上半年達(dá)到高峰。2012年四季度，在供應(yīng)收縮的情況下，即使房地產(chǎn)銷售沒(méi)有起色，庫(kù)存也將出現(xiàn)明顯下降。房地產(chǎn)政策放松的時(shí)點(diǎn)越晚，越有可能由于剛性需求爆發(fā)和供應(yīng)的收縮導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)大幅反彈。因此，我們預(yù)期放松地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的時(shí)點(diǎn)大約在2012年二季度或三季度，此時(shí)由于商品住宅庫(kù)存仍處于高位，放松地產(chǎn)政策也難以觸發(fā)房?jī)r(jià)大幅上漲。
在現(xiàn)金流出方面，由于企業(yè)對(duì)于投資性支出有一定的調(diào)節(jié)能力，可以通過(guò)放慢工程進(jìn)度與減少新開(kāi)工來(lái)調(diào)節(jié)工程費(fèi)用的支出等，而債務(wù)支出則具有一定剛性。對(duì)于到期債務(wù)，企業(yè)目前采取的融資形式主要是銀行貸款和信托融資，相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)，信托的滾動(dòng)融資能力比銀行貸款更差，一般不能展期，信托融資在資金收緊的情況下斷裂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較銀行貸款大。根據(jù)信托業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)公布的目前6798億元信托規(guī)模，2012年到期信托規(guī)模在3000億元以上，體量遠(yuǎn)大于債券市場(chǎng)。到期規(guī)模的翻倍外加后續(xù)資金來(lái)源的不足可能導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)信托出現(xiàn)償付危機(jī)。
因此，房地產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金流最緊張的時(shí)間很可能出現(xiàn)在2012年二季度，后期由于政策方面和流動(dòng)性的實(shí)質(zhì)性寬松，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)最終會(huì)渡過(guò)難關(guān)。期間外部融資的不暢疊加內(nèi)部銷售回款不到位，如果與投資周期產(chǎn)生錯(cuò)配，不排除出現(xiàn)企業(yè)倒閉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
房企未來(lái)博弈機(jī)會(huì)
展望房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)未來(lái)的博弈機(jī)會(huì)，主要來(lái)源于兩個(gè)方面：
一是在2012年四季度將有部分債券進(jìn)入回售期，企業(yè)面臨債券回售壓力時(shí)很有可能采取較為優(yōu)厚的條款來(lái)阻止回售，進(jìn)而帶來(lái)交易性機(jī)會(huì)。
二是在政策放松或者在流動(dòng)性全面放松之后，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的資金緊張狀況應(yīng)該能夠得到緩解，屆時(shí)房地產(chǎn)債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)水平下降的空間較大。
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